Trump Can Create a Concert of Great Powers

In President Donald Trump’s first term, he ran a less aggressive foreign policy than he seems to be doing now, with one major exception being his assassination of Iran’s top general and national hero, Qasem Soleimani. Trump, in his second term, has pivoted to a much more menacing policy toward friendly neighbors—not ruling out force to grab Greenland or retake possession of the Panama Canal, conducting economic warfare against Canada while threatening to make it the 51st state, and contemplating the use of military force against Mexican drug cartels without Mexico’s permission. The Trump administration has also taken a hard line against Europe, with the president declaring that the European Union “was formed in order to screw the United States.”

At the same time, the president is trying to ease tensions with Russia. He has revived diplomatic channels and dispatched top envoys to meet with Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin himself. Trump’s efforts to resolve the Russia–Ukraine War are part of this push for better relations with Moscow, with Washington making it clear that its military support for Kiev won’t last much longer. Moreover, Trump seems eager to cut some sort of deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as the White House is in discussions with Beijing about a summit between the two leaders this June. Trump may have grand expectations for such a deal. In December, a month before returning to the White House, Trump said that Washington and Beijing could work together “to solve all of the problems of the world.”

Trump’s bluster and threats against weaker neighbors and allies seem counterproductive, but his approach to the world’s other great powers—China and Russia—is refreshing and cause for cautious optimism. Although Trump has been much too willing to pull the rug out from under Ukraine—as he did last month by pausing military assistance to the beleaguered country—he is right to treat the U.S. relationship with Moscow as more important than the one with Kiev. As for China, the world’s second most powerful nation and America’s only peer competitor, Trump’s professed willingness to pursue cooperation should reassure analysts who fear a devastating superpower conflict.

Some historians argue that Trump is recreating a 19th-century-style international order, complete with spheres of influence, territorial expansion, and trade protectionism. But Trump seems to also envision a new era of international cooperation in which the great powers coordinate to solve global problems. If Trump really is aiming to create a concert of great powers, each with a more clearly defined sphere of influence, then bold and visionary foreign policy moves may be on the horizon.

If nudging Russia and Ukraine toward the negotiating table doesn’t work, Trump could inform Moscow that he intends to gradually turn support for Kiev’s war effort over to the Europeans. He could recognize the German- and French-led European Union as a great power and let the EU negotiate with Russia over peace in Ukraine, thus prompting them to define for themselves the border between Europe’s Western and Eastern blocs.

Concerning Asia, Trump could push to recognize India and Japan as great powers by petitioning to expand the United Nations Security Council to include them alongside China.

At the level of global politics, the U.S. president could call a great power conference to establish clearly defined spheres of influence for the United States (the Western Hemisphere); Russia (Central Asia and parts of Eastern Europe); the German- and French-led EU (most of Europe); India (South Asia); China (Southeast and Northeast Asia); and Japan (Asian offshore islands). The United Nations Security Council could be involved in resolving border disputes among the great powers over spheres of influence and in working on transnational issues, such as air and water pollution, climate change, commercial air travel, pandemic prevention, artificial intelligence, and more.

Trump, who complains about the costs of protecting Europe, seems to be concerned with the excessive burdens of providing security for U.S. allies across the globe. With a $37 trillion U.S. national debt and a developing multipolar world with more emerging power centers, other great powers could take over such policing in their spheres. However, instead of bullying weaker countries in the Western Hemisphere, Trump should take advice from the defensive realist school of foreign policy: The big man on campus—in this case, Trump and the United States—should set an example for other great powers by using force only as a last resort, since aggressive intra-sphere policies can provoke other regional actors to balance against a perceived threat. In other words, follow your mother’s advice: You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

The United States does need to have better relations with other great powers, namely, Russia and China, who aligned against the United States under the Biden administration. The U.S. can no longer remain the world’s policeman, and Trump seems to understand that trying to do so in the dawning era of multipolarity is doomed to fail. By leading the way toward a new concert of great powers, Trump could push the leading nations in the world’s major regions to help with the expensive task.