The Nuclear Ratchet

Crisis, Leviathan, and Atomic Weapons

By Abigail R. Hall, Christopher J. Coyne

This article appeared in the Spring 2025 issue of The Independent Review.

grynold / 123rf

We apply Robert Higgs’ ratchet effect model to explain the adoption, accumulation, and drawdown of nuclear weapons arsenals in the United States. We analyze how the two separate, but intertwined, crises of World War II and the Cold War led to the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons and the subsequent diminution of nuclear stockpiles. We explore the nonuse of nuclear weapons following WWII, highlighting the importance of ideology as a constraint on government.

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Abigail Hall
is a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute, and an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Tampa.
Christopher Coyne
is a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and Co-Editor of The Independent Review.